高校志愿录取机会与梯度评估模型

{
    "DataStatus": {
        "RequestParameter": "{\"province\": \"江苏\", \"subject_type\": \"物理类\", \"score\": 635, \"rank\": 12000, \"batch\": \"本科批\", \"top_n\": 10, \"include_explanation\": false, \"prefer_local\": false, \"college_provinces\": [\"江苏\", \"上海\"], \"target_colleges\": [\"南京大学\", \"东南大学\", \"南京航空航天大学\", \"南京理工大学\", \"苏州大学\", \"南京邮电大学\", \"河海大学\", \"江南大学\", \"上海大学\", \"华东理工大学\"], \"year\": 2026, \"local_batch_name\": \"本科批\"}",
        "StatusCode": 100,
        "StatusDescription": "预测成功",
        "ResponseDateTime": "2026-08-06 07:33:29.846",
        "DataTotalCount": 3,
        "RequestId": "22484302-c952-4751-b146-1483e592c759"
    },
    "Data": {
        "predictions": [
            {
                "college_name": "南京邮电大学",
                "admission_probability": 0.8513340812934563,
                "evidence": {
                    "recent_3y_min_score": [
                        623,
                        623
                    ],
                    "score_gap": 12,
                    "score_gap_original": 12,
                    "province_line_gap": 179,
                    "is_985": false,
                    "is_211": false,
                    "is_dual_class": true,
                    "college_rank": 122,
                    "plan_enrollment": 310,
                    "plan_coverage_ratio": 0.7067627494456763,
                    "major_hist_avg": 627,
                    "major_recent_min_trend": 0,
                    "aggregation_mode": "plan_weighted_school_probability",
                    "matched_plan_rows": 22,
                    "covered_plan_total": 2550,
                    "school_plan_total": 3608,
                    "historical_score_summary": {
                        "years": [
                            2025
                        ],
                        "latest_min_score": 623,
                        "recent_min_score_average": 623,
                        "student_score": 635,
                        "gap_to_latest_min": 12,
                        "gap_to_recent_min_average": 12
                    }
                },
                "shap_explanation": null,
                "recommendation": "录取概率高",
                "long_recommendation": "当前录取概率较高，按近年录取情况看，你的分数处于相对安全区间。你的分数高于近三年最低线12分，也高于近三年均值线12分。该结果按可匹配专业的招生计划加权汇总，更接近学校整体录取难度。",
                "major_name": null,
                "tier_name": null,
                "tier_label": null,
                "tier_min_probability": null,
                "chance_score": 0.8513340812934563,
                "interpretation": "历史条件下机会较高，建议作为稳妥梯度参考。",
                "long_interpretation": "在江苏、物理类、本科批和已匹配专业计划范围内，模型给出 0.85 的历史条件机会估计。历史数据使用 2025 年。输入分数高于最新可用最低线 12 分，高于近年最低线均值 12 分。招生计划覆盖率为 70.7%（2550/3608）。仍需核对当年专业组、选科、体检、校区和调剂要求。",
                "data_through_year": 2025,
                "historical_years": [
                    2025
                ],
                "plan_coverage": {
                    "status": "AVAILABLE",
                    "ratio": 0.7067627494456763,
                    "matched_plan_rows": 22,
                    "covered_plan_total": 2550,
                    "school_plan_total": 3608
                },
                "fallback_path": {
                    "applied": false,
                    "requested_level": "college",
                    "effective_level": "plan_weighted_school",
                    "strategy": "plan_weighted_school_probability",
                    "reason": null
                },
                "evidence_consistency_status": "VERIFIED"
            },
            {
                "college_name": "江南大学",
                "admission_probability": 0.8069397227217383,
                "evidence": {
                    "recent_3y_min_score": [
                        624,
                        600
                    ],
                    "score_gap": 27.799999999999955,
                    "score_gap_original": 11,
                    "province_line_gap": 179,
                    "is_985": false,
                    "is_211": true,
                    "is_dual_class": true,
                    "college_rank": 57,
                    "plan_enrollment": 61,
                    "plan_coverage_ratio": 0.8233295583238958,
                    "major_hist_avg": 627,
                    "major_recent_min_trend": 44,
                    "aggregation_mode": "plan_weighted_school_probability",
                    "matched_plan_rows": 42,
                    "covered_plan_total": 727,
                    "school_plan_total": 883,
                    "historical_score_summary": {
                        "years": [
                            2021,
                            2022,
                            2025
                        ],
                        "latest_min_score": 624,
                        "recent_min_score_average": 600,
                        "student_score": 635,
                        "gap_to_latest_min": 11,
                        "gap_to_recent_min_average": 35
                    }
                },
                "shap_explanation": null,
                "recommendation": "录取概率高",
                "long_recommendation": "当前录取概率较高，按近年录取情况看，你的分数处于相对安全区间。你的分数高于近三年最低线11分，也高于近三年均值线35分。该结果按可匹配专业的招生计划加权汇总，更接近学校整体录取难度。",
                "major_name": null,
                "tier_name": null,
                "tier_label": null,
                "tier_min_probability": null,
                "chance_score": 0.8069397227217383,
                "interpretation": "历史条件下机会较高，建议作为稳妥梯度参考。",
                "long_interpretation": "在江苏、物理类、本科批和已匹配专业计划范围内，模型给出 0.81 的历史条件机会估计。历史数据使用 2021、2022、2025 年。输入分数高于最新可用最低线 11 分，高于近年最低线均值 35 分。招生计划覆盖率为 82.3%（727/883）。仍需核对当年专业组、选科、体检、校区和调剂要求。",
                "data_through_year": 2025,
                "historical_years": [
                    2021,
                    2022,
                    2025
                ],
                "plan_coverage": {
                    "status": "AVAILABLE",
                    "ratio": 0.8233295583238958,
                    "matched_plan_rows": 42,
                    "covered_plan_total": 727,
                    "school_plan_total": 883
                },
                "fallback_path": {
                    "applied": false,
                    "requested_level": "college",
                    "effective_level": "plan_weighted_school",
                    "strategy": "plan_weighted_school_probability",
                    "reason": null
                },
                "evidence_consistency_status": "VERIFIED"
            },
            {
                "college_name": "苏州大学",
                "admission_probability": 0.7074682458538165,
                "evidence": {
                    "recent_3y_min_score": [
                        635,
                        636
                    ],
                    "score_gap": -0.7000000000000455,
                    "score_gap_original": 0,
                    "province_line_gap": 179,
                    "is_985": false,
                    "is_211": true,
                    "is_dual_class": true,
                    "college_rank": 42,
                    "plan_enrollment": 139,
                    "plan_coverage_ratio": 0.7279284477784189,
                    "major_hist_avg": 636,
                    "major_recent_min_trend": -4,
                    "aggregation_mode": "plan_weighted_school_probability",
                    "matched_plan_rows": 60,
                    "covered_plan_total": 2523,
                    "school_plan_total": 3466,
                    "historical_score_summary": {
                        "years": [
                            2023,
                            2024,
                            2025
                        ],
                        "latest_min_score": 635,
                        "recent_min_score_average": 636,
                        "student_score": 635,
                        "gap_to_latest_min": 0,
                        "gap_to_recent_min_average": -1
                    }
                },
                "shap_explanation": null,
                "recommendation": "需要注意梯度，但成功率较高",
                "long_recommendation": "当前录取机会较大，但仍需关注同分段竞争和院校梯度波动。你的分数高于近三年最低线0分，但仍比近三年均值线低1分。该结果按可匹配专业的招生计划加权汇总，更接近学校整体录取难度。",
                "major_name": null,
                "tier_name": null,
                "tier_label": null,
                "tier_min_probability": null,
                "chance_score": 0.7074682458538165,
                "interpretation": "历史条件下机会中等偏高，建议结合其他志愿形成合理梯度。",
                "long_interpretation": "在江苏、物理类、本科批和已匹配专业计划范围内，模型给出 0.71 的历史条件机会估计。历史数据覆盖 2023 至 2025 年。输入分数高于最新可用最低线 0 分，低于近年最低线均值 1 分。招生计划覆盖率为 72.8%（2523/3466）。仍需核对当年专业组、选科、体检、校区和调剂要求。",
                "data_through_year": 2025,
                "historical_years": [
                    2023,
                    2024,
                    2025
                ],
                "plan_coverage": {
                    "status": "AVAILABLE",
                    "ratio": 0.7279284477784189,
                    "matched_plan_rows": 60,
                    "covered_plan_total": 2523,
                    "school_plan_total": 3466
                },
                "fallback_path": {
                    "applied": false,
                    "requested_level": "college",
                    "effective_level": "plan_weighted_school",
                    "strategy": "plan_weighted_school_probability",
                    "reason": null
                },
                "evidence_consistency_status": "VERIFIED"
            }
        ],
        "meta": {
            "total_colleges": 3,
            "student_score": 635,
            "student_province": "江苏",
            "local_colleges": null,
            "score_diff_min": 0,
            "score_diff_median": 11,
            "prefer_local": false,
            "college_provinces": [
                "江苏",
                "上海"
            ],
            "model_version": "v1.1.0",
            "data_through_year": 2025,
            "historical_years": [
                2021,
                2022,
                2023,
                2024,
                2025
            ],
            "interpretation_policy_version": "2026-08",
            "policy_constraints": {
                "status": "PARTIALLY_EVALUATED",
                "evaluated": [
                    "province",
                    "subject_type",
                    "batch"
                ],
                "not_evaluated": [
                    "subject_selection",
                    "physical_exam",
                    "single_subject_score",
                    "campus",
                    "tuition",
                    "transfer_policy"
                ],
                "notice": "未评估项需以当年省级考试院和院校招生章程为准。"
            },
            "coverage_level": "available",
            "fallback": {
                "applied": false,
                "strategy": null,
                "requested_year": 2026,
                "effective_year": 2026,
                "requested_major_name": null,
                "effective_major_name": null
            }
        },
        "disclaimer": "本预测结果综合历年真实招生数据、院校录取趋势与机器学习模型推算而成，仅供志愿填报参考。建议结合当年政策、院校最新官方信息及个人实际情况综合判断，最终录取结果以各省考试院和院校官方公布为准。"
    }
}